Demographic outlook shows just how large LISD is getting

By Kyle Mooty

LPR Editor

The times are not ‘a-changing,’ as Bob Dylan once sang. They have changed. Nevertheless, Dylan wasn’t entirely wrong because they continue to change.

Lockhart ISD is the epitome of Dylan’s 1964 hit.

LISD currently has 6,464 students, a 4.8 percent increase from the 2021-22 school year — 298 more students than the year before. And if the housing market is any indication, which it certainly should be, that number will increase dramatically over the next several years.

This after LISD just passed a $71 million bond in the November for General election.

In 2008, LISD had just 4,500 students, pre-K through 12th grade.

If projected growth within the school district is anywhere near expectations, much more help will be required in the future because there is simply not enough space to house the projected student population with present-day facilities nor the planned future additions with the recent bond.

Brent Alexander, Director of Demographic Research at School District Strategies (SDS) in Dallas, gave an in-depth presentation regarding LISD’s demographics at the recent school bord meeting.

Among Alexander’s findings included LISD gained its most students in the last decade.

LISD has had 2.7 percent growth in the last decade.

LISD lost 116 students in the 2020-21 school year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

LISD’s district population is 33,335 in 2022 and there are currently 10,800 households within the district, an increase of 575, or 5.5 percent increase over the last two years. According to SDS, there has been a 23 percent increase of the LISD area population under the age of 18 during that period.

SDS’ Austin survey area includes 31 public independent school districts. LISD had the 16th largest enrollment of those last year. From the start of the 2018 school year through the next three years, seven of those districts had a decrease in enrollment. LISD had an increase during that time of only 0.8 percent; Prairie Lea was 8.8 percent, and Luling 2.6 percent.

LISD has record enrollment this year in the second and fourth grades, as well as all grades 9-12.

Overall, LISD has a record 2,677 enrolled in its elementary schools, a 6.2 increase over the last two years. Lockhart High School also has a record 2,046 enrolled.

Pre-K has 309 students enrolled in 2022-23, second only to 2000’s 331. Junior High has 1,433, third behind 2020’s 1,491 and 2021’s 1,485.

The following grade enrollments at ISD include:

Grades enrollments:

Pre-K – 309

K – 398

1st – 444

2nd – 471

3rd – 439

4th – 464

5th – 461

6th – 464

7th – 465

8th – 504

9th – 622

10th – 544

11th – 455

12th – 425

Birth rate trends from 2013-2019 in the LSD area show that LISD kindergarten could have as many as 467 students by fall 2024.

Students transferring out of the district have outnumbered those transferring into the district for three consecutive years.

Of the 136 that transferred into LISD schools last year, 55 were from the Luling district, 24 from Prairie Lea, 21 from Hays Consolidated, 12 from San Marcos Consolidated, 10 from Bastrop, and 4 from Del Valle.

Lockhart ISD had 538 lots delivered by developers in the last year.

The most closings in the last year were 36 at The Meadows at Clear Fork, which is in the Clear Fork Elementary district. There were 25 closings at Vintage Springs, both in the Bluebonnet and Clear Fork elementary districts. There are 245 lots still to close at Vintage Springs. The Meadows at Clear Fork yielded 214 students since 2019. The Windridge addition and Summerside each yielded 124, while Clearkfork Estates yielded 104. As for mobile homes, Forister Ranch yielded the most students in LISD with 305, while Silent Valley yielded 175. Apartments-wise, Southpark Village yielded 98 students.

There will be 475 upcoming lots at Summerside subdivision (Navarro Elementary) and 119 at Centerpoint Meadows (Clear Fork Elementary).

There are more than 8,500 single-family lots left in the development pipeline as of Fall 2022.