Latest cattle inventory report shows continued herd decline

Lockhart, Texas—The latest Cattle Inventory Report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows the nation’s beef cattle herd is slightly smaller than a year ago.

     As of Jan. 1, 2026, the total number of cows and calves in the U.S. was 86.2 million head, down from 86.5 million head in 2025.

     While the year-to-year decline was modest, it reflects the ongoing challenges facing

ranchers nationwide.

      Texas, the country’s leading cattle-producing state, reported 12.1 million head of cattle, holding relatively steady compared to last year. Within that total, however, there were some notable shifts.

     Total cow numbers in the Lone Star State dipped by about 30,000 head, but ranchers held back 50,000 more heifers. That increase in replacements suggests some ranchers may be in the early stages of a slow herd rebuild.

     “Tighter cattle supplies on the ranch will continue to have a ripple effect all the way to the grocery stores,”Tim Auld, Caldwell County Farm Bureau president, said. “When herd numbers are this tight, it affects the entire supply chain, from the pasture to the plate.”

    Several factors have contributed to the shrinking cow herd in Texas and across the country.

    Prolonged drought conditions have reduced available forage and water in many regions, while urban expansion has permanently converted pastureland into housing, infrastructure, solar and other non-agricultural uses.

“Raising cattle is a multi-year investment, so rebuilding the herd doesn’t happen quickly,” Auld said. “Even with improved moisture conditions, it would take several years for herd growth to translate into larger beef supplies.”