Semifinal Lessons Set the Stage for the Title Game
The College Football Playoff semifinals offered a revealing look at two programs on converging paths toward the national championship, one powered by resilience and late-game resolve, the other by season-long dominance that has bordered on overwhelming.
For Miami Hurricanes, the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl served as both vindication and warning. Quarterback Carson Beck, long a lightning rod for criticism over the past two seasons, delivered the defining performance of his career when Miami needed it most. Amid doubts about whether the Hurricanes were winning because of him or in spite of him, Beck answered decisively.
Facing Ole Miss, Beck engineered a 75-yard, 15-play drive late in the game, punctuated by a decisive scramble into the end zone that altered the trajectory of Miami’s program. He converted 11 of 15 third downs, completing seven of nine passes in those moments and adding 25 rushing yards, poise under pressure distilled into numbers.
“The last two games, you probably hadn’t seen him throwing it enough,” receiver Keelan Marion said afterward. “But the run game, that was the game plan. We had to take advantage of what they give us. But we knew he could do this.”
Yet Miami’s semifinal performance was far from flawless. After racking up 12 sacks in the first two playoff games, the Hurricanes’ vaunted pass rush, led by Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr., was largely neutralized by Ole Miss’s quick-passing attack. Miami finished with just one sack, recorded on the game’s opening drive. Missed interception opportunities, costly penalties, including a late fourth-quarter flag that set up a Rebels touchdown, and another missed field goal kept the game unnecessarily close.
Miami survived its mistakes, but the Fiesta Bowl underscored a familiar truth: the Hurricanes’ margin for error has narrowed to a razor’s edge. Talent carried them through, but cleaner execution will be required on college football’s biggest stage.
Waiting on the other sideline is a team that has made domination look routine.
Indiana Hoosiers announced their intentions from the opening snap of their semifinal, when cornerback D’Angelo Ponds intercepted Oregon quarterback Dante Moore and returned it for a touchdown. From there, the Hoosiers imposed their will in every phase, racing to a 35–7 halftime lead and never relenting.
Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza was nearly flawless, completing 17 of 20 passes for 177 yards. Through two playoff games, Mendoza has thrown eight touchdown passes against just five incompletions, an efficiency that borders on surreal. Since the Rose Bowl, Indiana has piled up 94 points and 770 yards of offense, dismantling Alabama and Oregon by a combined 69 points.
The Hoosiers’ dominance has been just as pronounced in the trenches. Since their Big Ten championship win over Ohio State, Indiana has smothered opposing running games and harassed elite quarterbacks, holding Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon to a combined 174 rushing yards. A blocked punt in the fourth quarter of the semifinal served as yet another exclamation point in a postseason run that has felt increasingly inevitable.
Indiana now stands one win away from completing one of the most stunning, and statistically resounding championship runs in the playoff era. The Hoosiers have outscored opponents by 473 points this season, tying 2019 Clemson for the largest point differential entering a national title game.
The championship matchup, then, becomes a study in contrast. Miami can win if it plays its cleanest, most disciplined game of the season, allowing Beck’s poise and its elite defensive line to dictate the tempo. Indiana can win by doing what it has done all year, control the line of scrimmage, punish mistakes and overwhelm opponents with depth and efficiency.
Indiana will enter as the betting favorite for a reason. But Miami’s escape in the Fiesta Bowl offered a reminder that belief, resilience and a quarterback capable of carrying a team can still bend the narrative, if only by the slimmest of margins.
